TOM Article

Today is the day. Friday, January 28, 2022. It's THE dual meet of the NCAA Division I season, and it goes down tonight in Carver-Hawkeye Arena at 9:00 PM Eastern on Big Ten Network. It's the date we all marked on our calendars as soon as conferences release their respective schedules. The "Super Bowl" of dual meet matchups if you will – No. 1 Penn State vs. No.2 Iowa, according to the NWCA Coaches Poll.  With that, here is TOM's preview and predictions for Penn State vs. Iowa in a weight-by-weight breakdown format. 

No. 1 Penn State vs. No. 2 Iowa

Dual Meet Record (Since 2009-2010 season): 5-4 in favor of Iowa Series Big Tournament Ten Team Titles (Since 2009-2010 season): 6-4 in favor of Penn State Team National Titles (Since 2009-2010 season): 8-2 in favor of Penn State  Overview: The Penn State vs. Iowa dual meet rivalry is renewed in 2022 after a year hiatus in 2021 (the dual was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Since Penn State head coach Cael Sanderson arrived in State College ahead of the 2009-2010 campaign, the Nittany Lions have won the rivalry with respect to Big Ten Tournament titles and NCAA team titles. Still, Tom Brands and the Hawkeyes have had a narrow advantage in dual meet victories over that span, winning five of the nine matchups.  In 2022, both squads come into the dual with undefeated records. The Nittany Lions are 13-0, while the Hawkeyes are 11-0. Additionally, all 10 Iowa starters are ranked in the latest TOM national rankings, while nine Nittany Lions have secured a place in TOM's top-20 at their respective weights.

WrestleStat Pages

Penn State: WrestleStat Wrestler Results  Iowa: WrestleStat Wrestler Results

 Bout-by-Bout Breakdown and Analysis 

125: No. 8 Drew Hildebrandt (4-1) vs. No. 11 Drake Ayala (13-4) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 0-0 Surprisingly, Hildebrandt and Ayala are both coming into this bout after losses last weekend. It was a tough 2-1 loss against Nick Suriano of Michigan for Hildebrandt. For Ayala, he was on the losing end of a 7-5 overtime decision to Ohio State senior Malik Heinselman.  This 125-pound bout will be a battle of inexperience (Ayala is a true freshman) vs. experience (Hildebrandt is a senior and returning All-American in year number six at the Division I level, redshirt included). Still, this will be the first time either wrestler has participated in the Penn State vs. Iowa showdown.  It will be interesting to see Drew's approach against the highly-regarded true freshman. Will he focus on his defense as he did in his bout with Suriano? Or, will Hildebrandt try to be offensive early against Ayala, who is prone to giving up an early (and usually the first) takedown? Either way, I expect Ayala to gain confidence and get stronger as the match progresses. The key will be his ability to survive the first period.  While I could see this match going either way, it is far more critical for the Hawks, especially with PSU being favored at 133 and 141.  Assuming the dual begins at 125, it could be devastating if Iowa fails to secure a win at the first three weights.  Miller's Pick: Ayala by decision.    133: No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young (10-0) vs. No. 3 Austin DeSanto (12-0) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 3-2 in favor of Bravo-Young I'm not sure there is an individual rivalry in the sport that has become more lopsided than this one – RBY vs. DeSanto. Austin came out on top the first two times they met, beating the eventual 2021 NCAA champion Bravo-Young twice in 2019, first by a 12-8 decision at the 2019 Big Ten Championships, then by a 7-2 decision at the 2019 NCAAs in Pittsburgh.  Since 2019, However, RBY is 3-0 with two regular decisions and an injury-default win. The momentum has clearly shifted to the Nittany Lion. Roman's most significant adjustment has been the way he puts his arm behind his back to prevent DeSanto from getting to his usual offense and finish. The adjustment has neutralized DeSanto attacks.   Usually, Austin wrestles opponents that don't match his ferocious offensive pace, but RBY certainly can and will match that frantic pace.  If DeSanto pulls off the upset, this could prove vital for the team score. That said, I think Roman's counter wrestling will be the difference.  Miller's Pick: Bravo-Young by major decision. 141: No. 1 Nick Lee (10-0) vs. No. 2 Jaydin Eierman (12-0)         Head-to-head (College Only): 2-1 in favor of Jaydin Eierman At 141, we will see our first No. 1 vs. No.2 matchup of the night, a 2021 NCAA finals rematch. Last year, Eierman claimed a Big Ten title with a 6-5 decision over Lee. However, two weeks later, at NCAAs, Lee got the winning takedown in overtime to clinch the 4-2 decision and ultimately the NCAA title.  While either wrestler can win the bout, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned by Jaydin's lack of offensive output and bonus-point decisions (or lack thereof) in 2022.  For instance, in 2021, Eierman finished the year at 12-1 with a 62% bonus rate. In 2022, he currently sits at 12-0, but his bonus rate is only 42%. Is there something to this decline in offensive output? We will find out on Friday.  Lee has jumped levels since these two first met in 2018, where Eierman (then at Missouri) recorded a 12-4 major decision at the national tournament against Lee. As always, when wrestling Eierman, Lee must watch out for the Jaydin's cradle – it's lethal.  Miller's Pick: Lee by decision.   149:  No. 17 Beau Bartlett (10-3) vs. No. 10 Max Murin (6-2) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 0-0 Anyone who has watched Beau Bartlett and Max Murin wrestle this season likely understands that a single point will probably decide this match. Both guys have an affinity for the "nail-biter bout," one that is decided in the match's final seconds (or overtime).  Five of Bartlett's 13 matches were one-point margins. For Murin, three of his eight total matches have had a one-point margin.So, if the data tells you anything, it's that this will be a tight bout. This season, both wrestlers have lacked consistency, but also, they have shown the ability to earn a big-time win. Bartlet earned a 3-1 sudden-victory win over then-No. 6 Kyle Parco (Arizona State).  Murin has a 4-3 win over then-No. 6 Yahya Thomas (Northwestern) to his credit. Plus, Murin was part of an absolute barnburner of a match with 2021 NCAA finalist, No. 2 Sammy Sasso of Ohio State last week. Murin lost 3-2. Still, he looked fantastic.  The bout could go either way, but I have a hunch Murin bounces back with a big win that will be crucial for the dual's final score.  Miller's Pick: Murin by decision.   157: Terrell Barraclough (6-6) / Tony Negron (1-5) vs. No. 12 Kaleb Young (10-5)   Head-to-head Record (College Only): 0-0 I expect Terrell Barraclough to get the nod for the Blue and White.  Barraclough will have a tall task in front of him, though, with two-time All-American Kaleb Young. Young is getting back to his winning ways. Young has seen his schedule ease up a bit after a brutal start to his season, where he faced a stretch where six of seven opponents were ranked. After his 4-0 shutout of Ohio State's Jashon Hubbard last Friday (January 21), Young has won four matches in a row (with two bonus-point wins) and likely regained some confidence. The Hawks will need Kaleb to return to his All-American form of years prior if the Black and Gold want a second straight dual win over the Nittany Lions. Credit Barraclough for fighting hard to limit his loss to Michigan's Will Lewan last Friday (January 21) to a regular decision. Barraclough, the lone unranked wrestler in the dual, will need to do so again against Young as well.  For Kaleb, if he can muster a major decision, it'll be huge for the Hawks.  Miller's Pick: Young by decision. 165: No. 10 Brady Berge (3-0) vs. No. 5 Alex Marinelli (14-1) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 0-0 Brady Berge, 3-0 on the season, has only been back on the mat for about a week. A strong 3-1 win over a then-No. 10 Cam Amine (January 21) is his best win of 2022 date. Granted, Amine hadn't wrestled since CKLV back in early December, but this was still a very nice win for Berge.  Berge made his return to competition after retiring (and moving on to college coaching) last year due to concussion issues. Before returning to competition, he served as a volunteer assistant at South Dakota State under Damion Hahn. What a one-of-a-kind story!  Against Marinelli, Berge needs to watch out for the foot-sweep and not go upper-body with The Bull.  Marinelli is looking to bounce back from his first loss of the season, a tight 3-2 decision to Buckeye standout Carson Kharchla. I think The Bull bounces back.  Simply put, Marinelli doesn't lose in Carver (it's only happened once, in 2020 vs. PSU's Vincenzo Joseph).  This bout could be a momentum-shifting match to kick off the back half of the dual. It will likely the first dual after the intermission. Iowa's performance in these three matches (149, 157, and 165) will go a long way to determining if the Hawks win the dual.  Miller's Pick: Marinelli by decision.   174: No. 1 Carter Starocci (13-0) vs. No. 2 Michael Kemerer (5-0) Head-to-head Record (College Only): Tied at 1-1 The match at 174 between No. 1 Carter Starocci and No. 2 Michael Kemerer will be our second 2021 NCAA finals rematch of the night (141 the other). Last year, at 141 and 174, Hawkeye wrestlers Eierman and Kemerer won the Big Ten titles, while the Nittany Lion wrestlers Lee and Starocci won NCAA crowns.    As I've said before, it's hard to say that a defending NCAA champion (as a true freshman no less) can be the "most improved wrestler" on a team, but I genuinely believe Starocci is the most improved of the Nittany Lion starters. However, he struggled a bit against Michigan's Logan Massa last week, looking a tad tired in the final frame, but winning narrowly, 3-2.   Conversely, this season, Kemerer has looked great despite being 25 years old, a seventh-year senior, and sporting two knee pads and a shoulder brace. Even so, Kemerer is coming off his best win of the season, a 6-3 victory over No. 7 Ethan Smith.  It's a risky pick, but I'm going with Kemerer. Miller's Pick: Kemerer by decision.   184: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (11-0) vs. No. 17 Abe Assad (9-3) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 1-0 in favor of Aaron Brooks Concerning the national rankings, this one is uneven. After a tough start to the season, No. 17 Abe Assad has looked solid. He is 7-2 since his tight 4-3 loss at the Luther Open to high schooler Clayton Whiting, and his losses are to No. 3 Hayden Hidlay, 6-0, and No. 5 Romero, 3-1. However, No. 1 Aaron Brooks is just on a different level in 2022. The defending national champ is 11-0 with a 73% bonus-point rate. Additionally, of Brooks' 11 wins, seven are against wrestlers currently ranked by The Open Mat.  I think 184 could be a weight where Penn State picks up some precious extra points for the team score.  Miller's Pick: Brooks by major decision.    197: No. 2 Max Dean (12-1) vs. No. 3 Jacob Warner (11-1) Head-to-head Record (College Only): 0-0 Yet again, we have another super exciting match during the back half of this No. 1 Penn State vs. No. 2 Iowa dual. At 197, No. 2, Max Dean will face No. 3, Jacob Warner.  On paper, these two are about as even s it gets. Dean has finished as high as second at NCAAs, while Warner has finished as high as fourth. That said, even though Dean is coming off a surprising loss to Michigan State's Cam Caffey, 3-2 on Sunday, I think the Cornell transfer gets the W against Warner tonight.  Warner was gassed in the third period during his last match, a 6-5 victory over Ohio State's Kaleb Romero on Friday (January 21). With that in mind, I expect Dean to get a takedown and put on a very physically and imposing ride (maybe even a Bow and Arrow) at some point.  Ultimately, Dean's top work and superior scrambling ability will be the difference, in my opinion.   Miller's Pick: Dean by decision. 285: No. 3 Greg Kerkvliet (11-0) vs. No. 5 Tony Cassioppi (9-2)     Head-to-head Record (College Only): 1-0 in favor of Tony Cassioppi Tony Cassioppi has the head-to-head advantage over Greg Kerkvliet, and that match was by a wide margin, 12-4. However, after seeing Kerkvliet beat then-No. 2 Mason Parris of Michigan so handily recently, I have to give the slight edge to the Penn State Nittany Lion, Kerkvliet. It will be interesting to see if Greg can get to Cassioppi's legs and finish as successfully as he did against Parris.  In 2022, Kerkvliet has proven he is a much different wrestler when completely healthy. On the other hand, a much slimmer Cassioppi has been more susceptible to being thrown to his back.  Whether Kerkvliet can land a throw against Tony remains to be seen, but I expect the former Ohio State Buckeye now turned Penn State  Nittany Lion to get the win to close the dual.  Miller’s Pick: Kerkvliet by decision. Final Thoughts: Man, I can't wait for Friday at 9:00 PM Eastern!  Fans are in for quite a treat from two of the premier programs in NCAA Division I. Of the last 10 NCAA team titles, these two institutions have won nine, with Ohio State in 2015 being the lone exception.  Within these 10 bouts, we could see as many as 19 ranked wrestlers, four defending NCAA champions, and possibly two 2021 NCAA finals rematches. It doesn't get much better than that! The stats, the accolades, and the national rankings speak for themselves. The matches should be fairly close, and bonus points could be slim, but super important. All we can do now is hope for is a competitive dual, no ducking, and most importantly, no injuries to anyone involved. One thing that is for sure – a sold-out Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be LOUD.

Projected Final Score: No. 1 Penn State 17, No. 2 Iowa: 15

Projected wins for Iowa: 125, 149, 157, 165, 174 (5 wins) Projected wins for Penn State: 133, 141, 184, 197, 285 (5 wins)

MATCH NOTES AND PROBABLE LINEUPS

Iowa: Match Notes and Probable Lineup  Penn State: Match Notes 

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