photo courtesy of Sam Janicki; SJanickiPhoto.com
The 2021 NCAA Championships are rapidly approaching and since brackets have been released, we now know everyone’s path to an NCAA title. Before the action gets underway from St. Louis, we will break down each bracket in detail. We’ll start with some historical facts for reference, break down who can win each weight class, who will contend for All-American honors, who are scary matchups for potential upsets, and how this bracket will affect the team race. Let’s move on to the 285 lbers.
Conference Champions
ACC: Deonte Wilson (NC State)
Big 12: Gannon Gremmel (Iowa State)
Big Ten: Gable Steveson (Minnesota)
EIWA: Jordan Wood (Lehigh)
MAC: Matt Stencel (Central Michigan)
Pac-12: Cohlton Schultz (Arizona State)
SoCon: Michael McAleavey (The Citadel)
Other Automatic Qualifiers:
ACC: Hunter Catka (Virginia Tech), Quinn Miller (Virginia), Andrew Gunning (North Carolina)
Big 12: Brian Andrews (Wyoming), Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force), Josh Heindselman (Oklahoma), Brandon Metz (North Dakota State)
Big Ten: Mason Parris (Michigan), Tony Cassioppi (Iowa), Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State), Christian Lance (Nebraska), Tate Orndorff (Ohio State), Trent Hillger (Wisconsin)
EIWA: Robert Heald (Army West Point--withdraw), Zachary Knighton-Ward (Hofstra), Joe Doyle (Binghamton)
MAC: Ethan Laird (Rider), Zach Elam (Missouri)
Pac-12: Nathan Traxler (Stanford)
SoCon: Taye Ghadiali (Campbell)
At-Large Berths:
Big 12: Austin Harris (Oklahoma State), Carter Isley (Northern Iowa)
Big Ten: Luke Luffman (Illinois)
EIWA: John Birchmeier (Navy)
MAC: Sam Schuyler (Buffalo), Jon Spaulding (Edinboro)
Performance by Seed; Last 10 Years (13-16 seed started in 2014--2020 excluded)
1: 10 AA’s, 8 finalists, 5 champions
2: 10 AA’s, 8 finalists, 5 champions
3: 10 AA’s, 1 finalist
4: 6 AA’s, 1 finalist
5: 9 AA’s, 1 finalist
6: 4 AA’s, 1 finalist
7: 6 AA’s
8: 4 AA’s
9: 6 AA’s
10: 5 AA’s
11: 3 AA’s
12: 1 AA
13: 0 AA’s
14: 0 AA’s
15: 0 AA’s
16: 0 AA’s
US: 6 AA’s
Returning All-Americans
Gable Steveson (Minnesota) 2020 1st Team, 2019 3rd Place
Mason Parris (Michigan) 2020 1st Team
Matt Stencel (Central Michigan) 2020 1st Team, 2019 7th Place
Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) 2020 1st Team
Gannon Gremmel (Iowa State) 2020 2nd Team
Jordan Wood (Lehigh) 2020 2nd Team, 2019 4th Place
Trent Hillger (Wisconsin) 2020 1st Team, 2019 8th Place
Nathan Traxler (Stanford) 2020 2nd Team
Who Can Win?
After watching the Big Ten finals, it’s really difficult to imagine anyone other than #1 Gable Steveson (Minnesota) getting his hand raised Saturday night. Steveson seemingly toyed with the second-ranked wrestler in the nation, Mason Parris (Michigan). The Gopher big man came away with his second Big Ten title and maintained his pace of at least a major decision in all of his 2021 matches. His dominance is even more impressive than it was in 2019-20. In 12 bouts, Steveson has notched six techs and three falls. He and 125 lber Spencer Lee have to be the Hodge Trophy favorites heading into the tournament.
With the way Parris dominated the field leading up to the Big Ten finals, many observers believed he would pose more of a threat to Steveson then in past year. Parris earned bonus points in all other matches, the most notable being a :58 second fall over #5 Tony Cassioppi. There were also questions surrounding the seeding of #9 Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State) at the Big Ten Championships, as he was slated to face the Wolverine in his opening bout. Parris did not seem concerned and coasted to an 11-3 major decision. Mason’s longtime collegiate rival, Matt Stencel (Central Michigan), has the third seed. The pair have squared off six times in their careers. Stencel got the best of Parris in 2018-19 winning two of three (both by fall) including in the NCAA Round of 12. As a sophomore, Parris would sweep their three bouts. Stencel comes in fresh off his fourth MAC title and he has only had one match within two points or less this year. Rounding out the top-four is super-freshman Cohlton Schultz (Arizona State). The Greco prodigy has yet to taste defeat during his career with the Sun Devils. Schultz defeated both Big 12 finalists during the regular season and three others that are in this bracket.
Upset Special
After the shuffling of the bracket after Robert Heald’s (Army West Point) removal, Pac-12 runner-up Nathan Traxler will now assume the 25th seed. Traxler is a three-time national qualifier at 197 lbs that moved up to heavyweight for his senior year. He was Round of 12 finisher in 2019 and earned second-team All-American honors last season after receiving the 12th at nationals. Traxler presents a potentially difficult first-round match for another returning All-American, #8 Jordan Wood (Lehigh). Even with a potential loss to Wood, Traxler now has a better path towards the podium in the consolations.
The #14 in this bracket has been on the NCAA podium before and is clearly capable of doing it again. Trent Hillger comes in at such a low seed in-part because of the strength of the weight in the Big Ten. Hillger locked up a berth at nationals by pinning #16 Luke Luffman (Illinois) who was responsible for one of his four losses. With a first round win, the Badger could renew acquaintances with Stencel in the second round. The pair have met twice, with Stencel winning at the 2019 Midlands and the 2019 NCAA seventh-place bout.
The race for the top-eight
We’ve already discussed Traxler, a 197 lber that moved up to 285 for his final year of eligibility. Another one is #7 Ethan Laird (Rider) the MAC runner-up. His only loss this season came to Stencel. Laird made waves in early-February when he knocked off Jordan Wood.
One of the wildcards at this weight is the freshman Kerkvliet. He was expected to miss the entire season after suffering a knee injury. Remarkably, Kerkvliet returned to the mat on the last week of the regular reason and logged a pair of pins. While Greg showed flashes of why he was considered one of the top recruits in the Class of 2019 at the Big Ten Tournament, he also was not in prime condition after missing so much mat time. If Kerkvliet can improve upon those facets of his game this week, he could contend for a high placement.
You have to go down to the tenth seed to find the ACC champion at this weight class, Deonte Wilson (NC State). He’s the lowest seeded champion from that conference this year. Wilson is undefeated with wins over five national qualifiers; however, he hasn’t defeated any of the key podium threats. He could get Laird in the second round. Also on that half of the bracket is #11 Zach Elam (Missouri). Elam had an extremely brutal regular season schedule that saw him face former or eventual national qualifiers in 11 of his 14 bouts. The rest of the Big Ten contingent, #12 Christian Lance (Nebraska), #16 Luke Luffman (Illinois), and #21 Tate Orndorff (Ohio State) are all expected to make deep runs in the tournament.
Team Race Implications
Parris has established himself as the clear number two at this weight. Those points (and some bonus) will be essential for a Wolverine team trophy. Cassioppi is a strong podium contender and could put the finishing touches on a Hawkeye title. Once again, Penn State will need Kerkvliet to drastically outwrestle his seed to have any sort of dreams of another championship. Missouri and NC State both have borderline All-American contenders that could contribute to their team’s chances. Schultz is in prime condition to finish high on the podium and put Arizona State in the top-four.
Round of 12: Ethan Laird (Rider), Trent Hillger (Wisconsin), Deonte Wilson (NC State), Jordan Wood (Lehigh)
Semifinals: Gable Steveson (Minnesota) vs. Tony Cassioppi (Iowa); Matt Stencel (Central Michigan) vs. Mason Parris
Predictions
1st - Gable Steveson (Minnesota)
2nd - Mason Parris (Michigan)
3rd - Matt Stencel (Central Michigan)
4th - Tony Cassioppi (Iowa)
5th - Cohlton Schultz (Arizona State)
6th - Zach Elam (Missouri)
7th - Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)
8th - Brian Andrews (Wyoming)
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