photo courtesy of Sam Janicki; SJanickiPhoto.com
The 2021 NCAA Championships are rapidly approaching and since brackets have been released, we now know everyone’s path to an NCAA title. Before the action gets underway from St. Louis, we will break down each bracket in detail. We’ll start with some historical facts for reference, break down who can win each weight class, who will contend for All-American honors, who are scary matchups for potential upsets, and how this bracket will affect the team race. Let’s move on to the 184 lbers.
Conference Champions
ACC: Trent Hidlay (NC State)
Big 12: Parker Keckeisen (Northern Iowa)
Big Ten: Aaron Brooks (Penn State)
EIWA: Louie DePrez (Binghamton)
MAC: Brit Wilson (Northern Illinois)
Pac-12: Dom Ducharme (CSU Bakersfield)
SoCon: Caleb Hopkins (Campbell)
Other Automatic Qualifiers:
ACC: Hunter Bolen (Virginia Tech), Devin Kane (North Carolina)
Big 12: Tate Samuelson (Wyoming), Dakota Geer (Oklahoma State), Alan Clothier (Northern Colorado)
Big Ten: Taylor Venz (Nebraska), John Poznanski (Rutgers), Nelson Brands (Iowa), Chris Weiler (Wisconsin), Layne Malczewski (Michigan State), Max Lyon (Purdue), Owen Webster (Minnesota)
EIWA: David Key (Navy), Charles Small (Hofstra), Taylor Brown (Army West Point), Dylan Ammerman (Lehigh), Joe Accousti (Sacred Heart)
MAC: Jeremiah Kent (Missouri), DeAndre Nassar (Cleveland State)
Pac-12:
SoCon: Matthew Waddell (Chattanooga)
At-Large Berths:
ACC: Gregg Harvey (Pittsburgh)
Big 12: Sam Colbray (Iowa State)
Big Ten: Zac Braunagel (Illinois), Rocky Jordan (Ohio State)
Pac-12: Ryan Reyes (Oregon State)
SoCon: Jha’Quan Anderson (Gardner-Webb)
Performance by Seed; Last 10 Years (13-16 seed started in 2014--2020 excluded)
1: 10 AA’s, 7 finalists, 4 champions
2: 8 AA’s, 4 finalists, 2 champions
3: 8 AA’s, 1 finalist
4: 6 AA’s, 1 finalist, 1 champion
5: 5 AA’s, 1 finalist
6: 8 AA’s, 3 finalists, 2 champions
7: 8 AA’s, 2 finalists
8: 3 AA’s
9: 6 AA’s, 1 finalist, 1 champion
10: 2 AA’s
11: 2 AA’s
12: 4 AA’s
13: 3 AA’s
14: 1 AA
15: 1 AA
16: 1 AA
26: 1 AA
US: 3 AA’s
Returning All-Americans
Aaron Brooks (Penn State) 2020 1st Team
Trent Hidlay (NC State) 2020 1st Team
Louie DePrez (Binghamton) 2020 1st Team
Hunter Bolen (Virginia Tech) 2020 1st Team
Taylor Venz (Nebraska) 2020 1st Team, 2018 4th Place
Dakota Geer (Oklahoma State) 2019 7th Place
Who Can Win?
This is a fun weight class because the majority of the title contenders are relatively young. The top two seeds (#1 Aaron Brooks and #2 Trent Hidlay) are sophomores, while the fourth seed (Parker Keckeisen) is a freshman. The “old men” amongst the top seeds are juniors (#3 Louie Deprez and #5 Hunter Bolen). Brooks gets the top billing after winning his second Big Ten crown in as many tries. Should he choose to exercise his extra year of eligibility, Brooks could attempt to become the first five-time Big Ten champion. Brooks is 9-0 on the year and has scored at least ten points in every contest. Hidlay grabs the second seed after avenging his only loss of the year, against Bolen, in the ACC finals. It was the first time in four meetings that Hidlay has defeated the Hokie. Against all other opponents, Hidlay is 28-2 over his two-year career. An opponent that owns a career win against Hidlay is the three-seed, DePrez. The two split matches in 2019-20, with Hidlay getting his hand raised in dual action, while the Bearcat prevailed at the Southern Scuffle. DePrez was a first-team All-American in 2020 and is now a two-time EIWA champion.
The loss to Hidlay sent Bolen from number one in the nation all the way down to the fifth seed. Bolen was seeded second at the NCAA tournament last season after grabbing his first ACC title. He has gone 33-3 since redshirting the 2018-19 campaign. The freshman Keckeisen has yet to taste defeat in an official collegiate bout and is now 14-0 with a Big 12 title to his credit. He has wins over 2019 All-American Dakota Geer (Oklahoma State) and five other opponents with previous NCAA tournament experience. He is the third straight UNI wrestler to claim a Big 12 title at 184 lbs, joining Drew Foster in 2019 and Taylor Lujan last season.
Upset Special
The Big Ten was absolutely brutal at 184 lbs, with eight wrestlers earning automatic bids and ten wrestlers total heading to St. Louis. With the conference only participating in duals against each other, you were bound to find some high-quality wrestlers with poor records. One of those is #24 Rocky Jordan (Ohio State). An honorable mention All-American in 2020, as a freshman, Jordan has only won five of his 13 bouts this year; however, he does own wins against the 13th and 16th seeds. He’ll make for a much more difficult opponent than #9 Jeremiah Kent (Missouri) may typically get in the opening round. If he gets by Kent, Jordan may see #8 Taylor Venz (Nebraska), who he split matches with last season.
The 2019 NCAA Tournament saw #22 Devin Kane (North Carolina) turn in the best performance by a 33rd seed, ever. And by ever, 2019 was actually the first year that all 33 wrestlers were seeded. After losing to Mark Hall, Kane put together three straight wins (over the #7, #15, and #17 seeds) to reach the bloodround. Now in a much better spot, Kane will try to work his magic again. He’ll face Oklahoma State All-American, Dakota Geer, in the first round. Looking back at his 2019 run, one of Kane’s victims was multiple-time Cowboy AA, Joseph Smith.
The race for the top-eight
We mentioned the youth in our key contenders and the next guy in line, #6 John Poznanski (Rutgers), is also a true freshman. At the Big Ten Championships, Poznanski fell to Brooks, but avenged his only prior loss this season, against Owen Webster (Minnesota). He wouldn’t finish until taking third place. The MAC champion, Brit Wilson, comes in as the seventh seed. Wilson gets the honors after pinning Kent in the conference championship bout and handing the Tiger his first loss of the season. This is the third time Wilson has qualified for the NCAA Championships and his second MAC title. #8 Taylor Venz is the only senior out of the top-ten seeds. Venz was an NCAA fourth-place finisher in 2018 and was unable to return to the podium in 2019. The Husker looks like he’s close to his old form after going 7-3 and making his first Big Ten final. While he lost to Brooks in that match, he’s still responsible for the Nittany Lions’ only collegiate loss.
Kent and Geer were mentioned as having difficult first-round matches. Should they prevail, they will be in the hunt for a spot on the podium. As will the #10 seed Tate Samuelson (Wyoming). Samuelson has had to rely on at-large berths during his first two trips to the national tournament, but this year he left nothing to question after making the Big 12 finals. Tate rose up the rankings with a regular-season win over Geer, then replicated the feat the Big 12 meet. A fourth-place finish at Big Ten’s was enough to get the #12 seed for Nelson Brands (Iowa). There Brands logged wins over four past national qualifiers. He doesn’t have a great draw with fifth-seeded Bolen in the second round, but it should be a low-scoring bout.
Team Race Implications
Aaron Brooks is the only Penn State wrestler seeded number one this year. For the Nittany Lions to catch Iowa, they’ll need Brooks to wrestler up to that ranking and a few bonus points wouldn’t hurt either. Iowa has Brands who could put Penn State behind the eight-ball if he manages to find his way into the top-eight. The two ACC powers, NC State and Virginia Tech, both have key title contenders. An appearance in the finals is crucial for both of their trophy dreams.
Round of 12: Brit Wilson (Northern Illinois), Chris Weiler (Wisconsin), David Key (Navy), Jeremiah Kent (Missouri)
Semifinals: Aaron Brooks (Penn State) vs. Hunter Bolen (Virginia Tech); Louie DePrez (Binghamton) vs. Trent Hidlay (NC State)
Predictions
1st - Aaron Brooks (Penn State)
2nd - Trent Hidlay (NC State)
3rd - Hunter Bolen (Virginia Tech)
4th - Louie DePrez (Binghamton)
5th - Parker Keckeisen (Northern Iowa)
6th - Tate Samuelson (Wyoming)
7th - Taylor Venz (Nebraska)
8th - John Poznanski (Rutgers)
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