photo courtesy of Sam Janicki; SJanickiPhoto.com
Last weekend we saw five conferences hold their championship events to kick off the postseason portion of the 2021 DI season. While there were plenty of exciting matches and memorable moments, it seemed like an appetizer for this weekend’s main course. The giant steak on the center of the college wrestling plate is, of course, the Big Ten! The top three teams in TOM’s latest NCAA Tournament-style rankings hail from the Big Ten, as do half of the top-ten and 11 of the top 25. Individually, eight of the ten number-one ranked wrestlers call the Big Ten home. Long story short, this tournament will be a preview of NCAA semifinals and finals at many different weights.
The odds on favorite heading into State College are the Iowa Hawkeyes. Tom Brands’ team was a heavy favorite last year, but didn’t get the opportunity to compete due to the cancellation of the national tournament. That left the Hawkeyes with a bad taste in their mouths as the traditional power had their first national title since 2010 within their sights. This year’s Iowa squad comes into the conference tournament with four top-seeds and three others seeded second. A potential thorn in the side of the Hawkeyes comes from a young Penn State team. Cael Sanderson’s bunch has six freshmen entered in the tournament, along with one sophomore. While the Nittany Lions are young, their freshmen are all blue-chip-type recruits and have big scoring capabilities. Right behind the top-two are Michigan and Nebraska. Both have veteran-laden groups that are battle-tested and capable of winning with a couple of slip-ups from the favorites.
Below we have outlined the preseeds for all ten weights, picked out a great quarterfinal or two (or three) to keep an eye on at each weight. With such deep weight classes, there’s always a darkhorse or two lurking at each weight. We’ve tried to identify one per bracket and then picked a pair of semifinals and then placewinners. Finally, based on the projected top-eight at each weight class, team race predictions.
125 lbs
1) #1 Spencer Lee (Iowa)
2) #8 Liam Cronin (Nebraska)
3) #9 Malik Heinselman (Ohio State)
4) #11 Patrick McKee (Minnesota)
5) #12 Rayvon Foley (Michigan State)
6) #10 Eric Barnett (Wisconsin)
7) #13 Devin Schroder (Purdue)
8) #14 Michael DeAugustino (Northwestern)
9) #15 (133) Dylan Ragusin (Michigan)
10) #19 Justin Cardani (Illinois)
11) #15 Robert Howard (Penn State)
12) Jacob Moran (Indiana)
13) Dylan Shawver (Rutgers)
14) Zach Spence (Maryland)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#2 Liam Cronin vs. #7 Devin Schroder
#8 Michael DeAugustino vs. #9 Dylan Ragusin
A Cronin/Schroder matchup would pit the current two-seed at the weight against the Big Ten runner-up from a year ago. Schroder started the year in the top-five but has dropped after a few losses. He is still a threat to make the finals, presumably against Spencer Lee. Cronin and Schroder have met in each of the past three seasons in dual action. Cronin took their most recent matchup, 3-1, while Schroder was victorious in the first two. We haven’t seen much of Michael DeAugustino in 2021, but he burst on the scene last year and finished third in the conference. Ragusin has been impressive on the freestyle circuit and for the Wolverines, wrestling 125 and 133. In his three wins at 125, Ragusin has defeated two past national qualifiers.
Beware of the Low Seed
#11 Robert Howard
The highly-touted four-time New Jersey state finalist, Robert Howard, kept having his Nittany Lion debut pushed back due to canceled duals and COVID-related concerns in the program. Once Howard finally hit the mat, he knocked off 2020 Big Ten fourth-place finisher Jack Medley. Howard also threatened Malik Heinselman, before ultimately falling, 5-2. He could face #6 Eric Barnett in the opening round and Heinselman in the quarters.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Spencer Lee vs. #5 Rayvon Foley
#3 Malik Heinselman vs. #7 Devin Schroder
Hodge Trophy winner Spencer Lee has continued to dominate his competition, even with limited action in 2021. All four of his matches this season have ended in first-period falls. Lee and Foley have not met since the 2018 season and it was the Hawkeye who prevailed by pin in both instances. While Foley may not threaten Lee in the semis, he is showing signs of returning to top form. After losing three of four, Foley rebounded with wins over Schroder and Jack Medley to finish the regular season. One of the opponents who downed Foley during his losing skid was Malik Heinselman. Malik has put together his finest season in Columbus. He won seven of eight matches and solidified himself as a top-ten talent. Heinselman’s only loss of the year came at the hands of, none other than, Schroder. Devin was able to keep the Buckeye in check during a 1-0 win. In their two previous meetings, the Boilermaker was able to amass bonus points.
TOM Predictions
1st - Spencer Lee (Iowa) over Devin Schroder (Purdue)
3rd - Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) over Malik Heinselman (Ohio State)
5th - Robert Howard (Penn State) over Rayvon Foley (Michigan State)
7th - Patrick McKee (Minnesota) over Michael DeAugustino (Northwestern)
133 lbs
1) #2 Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State)
2) #3 Austin DeSanto (Iowa)
3) #4 Sammy Alvarez (Rutgers)
4) #9 Lucas Byrd (Illinois)
5) #8 Chris Cannon (Northwestern)
6) #21 (125) Jack Medley (Michigan)
7) #26 Boo Dryden (Minnesota)
8) #16 Jordan Decatur (Ohio State)
9) Jacob Rundell (Purdue)
10) Kyle Burwick (Wisconsin)
11) Tucker Sjomeling (Nebraska)
12) Jordan Hamdan (Michigan State)
13) Kyle Luigs (Indiana)
14) Jackson Cockrell (Maryland)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#4 Lucas Byrd vs. #5 Chris Cannon
Quite frankly, I’m not sure what to expect here between these two redshirt freshmen with a combined 12-1 record. The only blemish on Byrd’s ledger is a major decision loss to Austin DeSanto. Byrd also scored a pin over Cannon’s teammate Dylan Utterback during dual competition. Cannon has been dominant, logging bonus points in four of his five contests during the year. One of those wins was a 14-1 major decision over returning national qualifier Alex Thomsen. Byrd has yet to register a win of that caliber, though he did eighth seed, Jordan Decatur, by the score of 2-0. Whoever emerges as the winner in this quarterfinal would lock up a trip to St. Louis as eight are moving on automatically from this weight.
Beware of the Low Seed
#9 Jacob Rundell
After the top-eight seeds, the wrestler probably most able to make a run through this bracket is true freshman, #9 Jacob Rundell. Jacob got off to a rough start, losing four of his first five collegiate bouts. Admittedly it was against excellent competition, as Austin DeSanto and Sammy Alvarez were responsible for two of those. Rundell was able to compose himself and end the year with back-to-back wins over Jordan Hamdan (who was in the national rankings at the time) and Kyle Luigs.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Roman Bravo-Young vs. #5 Chris Cannon
#2 Austin DeSanto vs. #3 Sammy Alvarez
Before we see another chapter in the Bravo-Young/DeSanto rivalry, we’ve got a pair of good semifinals to analyze. Cannon blasted through the competition in 2019-20 while redshirting and won 20 of 22 bouts. He has yet to lose in 2021, though he has not faced anyone near the caliber of his Nittany Lion opponent. Ultimately, it’s hard to picture Cannon being able to keep pace with Roman on the scoreboard. A DeSanto/Alvarez matchup is a juicy one that we didn’t see last season. Both have been out of action for a considerable time, as their teams have not had an official competition for almost a month in Iowa’s case and longer for Rutgers. The contrast of styles between the two could make for a fun bout. DeSanto’s attacks and pace are well-known, while Alvarez is an excellent scrambler and can improvise in unusual situations.
TOM Predictions
1st - Roman Bravo Young (Penn State) over Austin DeSanto (Iowa)
3rd - Sammy Alvarez (Rutgers) over Chris Cannon (Northwestern)
5th - Lucas Byrd (Illinois) over Boo Dryden (Minnesota)
7th - Jack Medley (Michigan) over Jacob Rundell (Purdue)
141 lbs
1) #1 Jaydin Eierman (Iowa)
2) #2 Nick Lee (Penn State)
3) #3 Sebastian Rivera (Rutgers)
4) #4 Chad Red (Nebraska)
5) #15 Dylan Duncan (Illinois)
6) #24 Marcos Polanco (Minnesota)
7) #20 Dylan D’Emilio (Ohio State)
8) #21 Drew Mattin (Michigan)
9) #25 Parker Filius (Purdue)
10) Cayden Rooks (Indiana)
11) Danny Bertoni (Maryland)
12) Matt Santos (Michigan State)
13) Colin Valdiviez (Northwestern)
14) Dom Dentino (Wisconsin)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#4 Chad Red (Nebraska) vs. #5 Dylan Duncan (Illinois)
The top-four at this weight (also the top-four in the nation) has separated itself from the rest of the pack, so there aren’t that many intriguing matchups in the semis. One exception could be between the fourth and fifth seeds, as Chad Red and Dylan Duncan could renew acquaintances. The two last met in the final weekend of the regular season and Red got his hand raised after a wildly entertaining scrap. Both wrestlers displayed some excellent scrambling skills and had more exciting flurries than a 4-3 score may indicate.
Beware of the Low Seed
#13 Colin Valdiviez
As a true freshman, in 2018, Colin Valdiviez made the NCAA Tournament and even registered a pair of victories. One over Korbin Myers and another over Dylan Duncan. Since then, Valdiviez competed in the 2019 Big Ten Championships, but did not earn a trip to nationals. Last season, he was stuck behind Big Ten champion Sebastian Rivera. In 2021, Colin has a record that looks ugly at 2-5. However, he does have a handful of close losses mixed in. With eight of the 14 wrestlers locking up bids to nationals, it may only take one upset to propel Valdiviez into the top-eight.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Jaydin Eierman vs. #4 Chad Red
#2 Nick Lee vs. #3 Sebastian Rivera
Both of these semifinals are Big Ten or NCAA finals-type matches. It wouldn’t be surprising to see any combination of these four wrestlers competing on the raised stage in St. Louis. Chad Red is the only one of the four with a 2021 loss and it came via Jaydin Eierman. Though the pair have combined to earn All-American honors six times at 141 lbs, that was their first career meeting. Both can get a little funky and are capable of using a cradle or two. The other half of the bracket also features pair of three-time All-Americans. Last year, it was Sebastian Rivera who shined in his home state, claiming a Big Ten crown at 133 lbs. Will the tables turn in 2021 and Nick Lee emerges on top while his school hosts the championship? A Lee/Rivera match is one of the most highly anticipated of the tournament and should feature great action from two offensively-minded opponents.
TOM Predictions
1st - Nick Lee (Penn State) over Jaydin Eierman (Iowa)
3rd - Sebastian Rivera (Rutgers) over Chad Red (Nebraska)
5th - Dylan Duncan (Illinois) over Dylan D’Emilio (Ohio State)
7th - Marcos Polanco (Minnesota) over Parker Filius (Purdue)
149 lbs
1) #2 Sammy Sasso (Ohio State)
2) #5 Max Murin (Iowa)
3) #13 Griffin Parriott (Purdue)
4) #18 Yahya Thomas (Northwestern)
5) #11 Kanen Storr (Michigan)
6) #17 Michael Blockhus (Minnesota)
7) #14 Ridge Lovett (Nebraska)
8) Mike Van Brill (Rutgers)
9) #19 Graham Rooks (Indiana)
10) #26 Peyton Omania (Michigan State)
11) #27 Beau Bartlett (Penn State)
12) #24 Drew Scharenbrock (Wisconsin)
13) Christian Kanzler (Illinois)
14) Michael North (Maryland)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#3 Griffin Parriott vs. #6 Michael Blockhus (Minnesota)
#4 Yahya Thomas vs. #5 Kanen Storr (Michigan)
This weight should provide more intrigue in the quarterfinal round than its two predecessors. Griffin Parriott is still undefeated, though he’s missed a handful of matches for the Boilermakers. He’s shown he can get hot and go deep into major tournaments, evidenced by his final run at the 2018 Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational. He only was active in an extra match when Purdue met Minnesota earlier this season. Then Parriott grabbed a one-point win over Jake Bergeland. Michael Blockhus in his first year at Minnesota after qualifying for nationals while competing at Northern Iowa last year. He is just slightly over .500 for the year during his first taste of Big Ten action. Another fun quarter to follow is the four-five matchup involving Yahya Thomas and Kanen Storr. Many expected Storr to contend for the Big Ten, but he’s dropped in the rankings after one-sided losses to Sammy Sasso and Peyton Omania. While Storr’s best style may be freestyle, the same could be said for Thomas, who is a past Junior World Team member. Thomas is 5-2 on the year and finished the regular season with a narrow loss to Blockhus.
Beware of the Low Seed
#11 Beau Bartlett
Apologies to #10 Peyton Omania, who also deserves mention. He finished the dual season with a decisive 15-8 victory over Storr. Omania could be a bad draw, just like Beau Bartlett. Beau was one of the top recruits in the Class of 2020 and got the nod from the Penn State staff, despite being slightly undersized for 149. Bartlett shocked the top-seed, Sasso, with a takedown early in their dual meet, before falling 5-3. It was the only loss of the year for Bartlett. With the majority of this field being very even with each other, Beau could emerge high amongst the placewinners.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Sammy Sasso vs. #5 Kanen Storr
#2 Max Murin vs. #11 Beau Bartlett
Last season, Sammy Sasso came up just shy of a Big Ten title as he was edged by Iowa’s senior Pat Lugo. Don’t expect that to happen again. Sasso has been able to generate more offense in his sophomore season, which was apparent in his 8-1 win over Kanen Storr. He also has been able to pick up falls against two of his most significant challenges of the year (against Max Murin and Michael Carr). The cancelation of the dual between Iowa and Penn State robbed fans of a potential Murin/Bartlett match. With some magic from the young Nittany Lion, we may see it here. Bartlett will have to be creative to score against the ordinarily stingy Murin.
TOM Predictions
1st - Sammy Sasso (Ohio State) over Max Murin (Iowa)
3rd - Beau Bartlett (Penn State) over Kanen Storr (Michigan)
5th - Ridge Lovett (Nebraska) over Griffin Parriott (Purdue)
7th - Michael Blockhus (Minnesota) over Yahya Thomas (Northwestern)
157
1) #1 Ryan Deakin (Northwestern)
2) #5 Kaleb Young (Iowa)
3) #6 Brayton Lee (Minnesota)
4) #7 Kendall Coleman (Purdue)
5) #9 Brady Berge (Penn State)
6) #10 Will Lewan (Michigan)
7) #23 Chase Saldate (Michigan State)
8) #26 Garrett Model (Wisconsin)
9) #31 Elijah Cleary (Ohio State)
10) Caleb Licking (Nebraska)
11) Michael Doetsch (Maryland)
12) Johnny Mologousis (Illinois)
13) Luke Baughman (Indiana)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#2 Kaleb Young vs. #7 Chase Saldate
#3 Brayton Lee vs. #6 Will Lewan
#4 Kendall Coleman vs. #5 Brady Berge
Don’t be alarmed by the 4-3 record for true freshman Chase Saldate. All three of those losses came to wrestlers who were All-Americans as freshmen in 2020 (Brayton Lee, Kendall Coleman, Will Lewan). Could he be the freshman sensation this year? Remember, a year ago, Kaleb Young came into the Big Ten meet with only two losses, yet went 0-2. Lee was at 149 lbs in 2020, so he didn’t meet Will Lewan and the two didn’t cross paths this season. Both can be deliberate in their offensive attacks, so expect a low-scoring affair. The four/five-bout is a stark contrast as Kendall Coleman is very dynamic offensively, while Berge is closer to Lee and Lewan. The two didn’t meet as Berge only saw the mat twice in 2019-20. He comes into the 2021 tournament unbeaten.
Beware of the Low Seed
#10 Caleb Licking
If any of the double-digit seeds have an impact at this weight, it could come from Caleb Licking. Caleb had losses to the two and three seeds at this weight, but fell after getting pinned by eighth-seeded Garrett Model. He comes into State College after back-to-back wins to finish the regular season. Caleb is a senior that fought up the ranks in the Cornhusker wrestling room over the years. A guy like that is likely to take advantage of his first and only shot at the postseason.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Ryan Deakin (Northwestern) vs. #4 Kendall Coleman (Purdue)
#3 Brayton Lee (Minnesota) vs. #7 Chase Saldate (Michigan State)
For the second consecutive year, Ryan Deakin pulls into the Big Ten tournament with a spotless record. He left the 2020 tournament after cruising to a title 7-2 over Kendall Coleman. That final has the potential to happen in the semis this year. The only opponent to defeat Coleman this season has been Lee, who edged the Boilermaker by a point. Deakin dismantled Lee, 12-0. You’ll notice we projected an upset from the seventh seed, Chase Saldate. He was a huge recruit for the Spartan coaching staff and has shown promise in limited action. We see Lee stopping his surprising run and booking another go-'round with the defending champion Deakin.
TOM Predictions
1st - Ryan Deakin (Northwestern) over Brayton Lee (Minnesota)
3rd - Kendall Coleman (Purdue) over Brady Berge (Penn State)
5th - Kaleb Young (Iowa) over Chase Saldate (Michigan State)
7th - Will Lewan (Michigan) over Caleb Licking (Nebraska)
165 lbs
1) #1 Alex Marinelli (Iowa)
2) #5 Danny Braunagel (Illinois)
3) #6 Ethan Smith (Ohio State)
4) #12 Cameron Amine (Michigan)
5) #16 Andrew Sparks (Minnesota)
6) #14 Joe Lee (Penn State)
7) #17 Peyton Robb (Nebraska)
8) #22 Jake Tucker (Michigan State)
9) Nick South (Indiana)
10) #30 Gerrit Nijenhuis (Purdue)
11) Jonathan Spadafora (Maryland)
12) David Ferrante (Northwestern)
13) Brett Donner (Rutgers)
14) Josh Otto (Wisconsin)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#2 Danny Braunagel vs. #7 Peyton Robb
#3 Ethan Smith vs. #6 Joe Lee
#4 Cameron Amine vs. #5 Andrew Sparks
The first two matches in the group we’ve seen recently. On the last weekend of the regular season, Danny Braunagel won a 9-6 shootout over Peyton Robb. That dropped Robb to three losses on the year and gives him the second seed. Peyton turned it on last year at Big Ten’s and finished in third. Could he do it again, this time? The only loss on freshman Joe Lee’s resume came courtesy of Ethan Smith via fall. For the Nittany Lions to challenge Iowa this weekend and, at nationals, they’ll need Lee to outwrestle his seed. Another pair of talented freshmen reside at the four and five seeds, in Cameron Amine and Andrew Sparks. We had a hunch that Amine would have this type of year after a 15-5 campaign, while redshirting. Smith is also responsible for Amine’s only loss of the year. Sparks is a true freshman that wasn’t expected by most to have an impact for the Gophers this year. He demonstrated an excellent gas tank in his debut over Robb and has maintained that trait throughout the season. His only loss of the year came via decision to #1 Alex Marinelli.
Beware of the Low Seed
#10 Gerrit Nijenhuis
A pair of Pennsylvania state titles helped make Gerrit Nijenhuis one of the most coveted recruits to sign with Purdue in the last decade. Nijenhuis competed as a high school senior at 182 lbs, but is down at 165 a year later. He has generally beaten the opponents below him in the rankings while hanging tough with those above him. Interestingly enough, Gerrit has a win by fall over Nick South, who is directly above him in the preseeds.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Alex Marinelli vs. #5 Andrew Sparks
#2 Danny Braunagel vs. #3 Ethan Smith
These are both rematches from early in the 2021 season. As stated before, Sparks was able to hang tough with Marinelli in late-November. That bout represents the most recent time Marinelli took the mat for the Hawkeyes. If there’s any sort of rust or conditioning issues, Sparks is not the type of opponent you want to face. On the bottom half of the bracket, Danny Braunagel edged Ethan Smith during the Buckeyes first match of the year. Both are extremely physical and hard to score on. The two met in 2019-20 and it was Smith who came out on top, 3-1.
TOM Predictions
1st - Alex Marinelli (Iowa) over Ethan Smith (Ohio State)
3rd - Danny Braunagel (Illinois) over Andrew Sparks (Minnesota)
5th - Joe Lee (Penn State) over Peyton Robb (Nebraska)
7th - Cameron Amine (Michigan) over Gerrit Nijenhuis (Purdue)
174 lbs
1) #1 Michael Kemerer (Iowa)
2) #2 Mikey Labriola (Nebraska)
3) #4 Carter Starocci (Penn State)
4) #6 Logan Massa (Michigan)
5) #14 Donnell Washington (Indiana)
6) #5 Kaleb Romero (Ohio State)
7) #23 Jackson Turley (Rutgers)
8) #24 Jared Krattiger (Wisconsin)
9) #25 Jake Allar (Minnesota)
10) #30 Drew Hughes (Michigan State)
11) #32 DJ Shannon (Illinois)
12) Emil Soehnlen (Purdue)
13) Troy Fisher (Northwestern)
14) Phil Spadafora (Maryland)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
#3 Carter Starocci vs. #6 Kaleb Romero
#4 Logan Massa vs. #5 Donnell Washington
We already had the opportunity to see Carter Starocci and Kaleb Romero clash during the dual season. That outing went the freshman’s way as Starocci was able to get by 2-1 in tiebreakers. That win helped propel Starocci to a top-five ranking nationally and his third seed at this tournament. It marked a second top-five win for the Nittany Lion in less than a week. Romero tends to be challenging to score on, so expect another low-scoring affair. Freshman Donnell Washington made himself a household name after spoiling Starocci’s Penn State debut. He proved he wasn’t a one-hit-wonder by defeating a pair of past national qualifiers on his way to six wins in eight matches. One of Washington’s two losses came to Logan Massa. The Wolverine pinned the freshman in the third period. Massa was rolling until a loss in tiebreakers to Starocci. It came after he was caught on his back during the rideouts.
Beware of the Low Seed
#14 Phil Spadafora
Coming into the 2021 season, Phil Spadafora was in the national rankings after qualifying for the NCAA Championships in 2020. He had a rough regular season, going 1-7, and losing his last six bouts. Looking into the number, Spadafora did wrestle an extremely challenging schedule. Five of those losses came to opponents seeded second-through-sixth at this tournament. With some time to get mentally prepared and focus on the tournament, Spadafora could be a tough out.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Michael Kemerer (Iowa) vs. #4 Logan Massa (Michigan)
#2 Mikey Labriola (Nebraska) vs. #3 Carter Starocci (Penn State)
These would be great matchups, neither of which we had the opportunity to see during the regular season. Some may have picked Michael Kemerer versus Logan Massa as a Big Ten or NCAA final at the beginning of the season. The odd loss by Massa made him slide in the rankings, but he’s still a significant threat to the Hawkeye. Kemerer has been out of action since February 7th, when he downed Smith. He’ll certainly have to earn his second conference title, by going through a combination of these opponents in the semis and final. Mikey Labriola is unbeaten on the year with bonus points in five of his eight victories. He stayed close with Kemerer in their 2019-20 dual, but ultimately lost 3-1. Starocci’s match with Labriola should have huge NCAA seeding implications at play too. The loser could end up on Kemerer’s side at nationals. Most of Starocci’s bouts with top-level competition have been tight and low-scoring, so I’d expect this one to follow suit.
TOM Predictions
1st - Michael Kemerer (Iowa) over Carter Starocci (Penn State)
3rd - Logan Massa (Michigan) over Mikey Labriola (Nebraska)
5th - Kaleb Romero (Ohio State) over Donnell Washington (Indiana)
7th - Jackson Turley (Rutgers) over Jake Allar (Minnesota)
184 lbs
1) #1 Aaron Brooks (Penn State)
2) #5 Chris Weiler (Wisconsin)
3) #17 Layne Malczewski (Michigan State)
4) #13 Owen Webster (Minnesota)
5) #18 John Poznanski (Rutgers)
6) #15 Taylor Venz (Nebraska)
7) #20 Max Lyon (Purdue)
8) #16 Zac Braunagel (Illinois)
9) #14 Nelson Brands (Iowa)
10) #19 Rocky Jordan (Ohio State)
11) Kyle Cochran (Maryland)
12) Jaden Bullock (Michigan)
13) Jon Halvorsen (Northwestern)
14) Santos Cantu (Indiana)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (8)
Quarters to Watch:
All of them! I’m going to cheat here. This weight class is like none other in the Big Ten. Aaron Brooks has clearly established himself at the top of the heap, but after him, all bets are off. There’s no reason why the sixth, seventh, or even tenth seed at 184 lbs couldn’t make the finals opposite Brooks. This bracket is also the most difficult to seed or rank, since most of these guys have beaten one another.
Beware of the Low Seed
#10 Rocky Jordan
I mean Rocky Jordan is a double-digit seed. That qualifies as a low seed. As mentioned earlier, Jordan is fully capable of emerging from the bottom half of the bracket to face Brooks in the finals. Just this year, Rocky has wins over #2 Chris Weiler and #7 Max Lyon. There’s a chance he could face both in the first two rounds. Last year, Jordan was fifth at the Big Ten Championships, which netted him a #15 seed and honorable mention All-American honors from the NWCA.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Aaron Brooks (Penn State) vs. #5 John Poznanski (Rutgers)
#2 Chris Weiler (Wisconsin) vs. #6 Taylor Venz (Nebraska)
After the first weekend of conference action, Aaron Brooks was elevated to the top spot in the national rankings after a loss by Hunter Bolen. Even so, Brooks was viewed by many as a favorite in St. Louis and now has the opportunity to earn a top seed. This year, Brooks has crushed an otherwise imposing group of 184 lbers, rolling to bonus points in five of his six wins. John Poznanski is a freshman that has emerged as a national threat after wins over Jordan and Lyon. Lehigh graduate transfer Chris Weiler has taken his game to new heights in the Wisconsin room. After Brooks, Weiler has been the most consistent wrestler at this weight, grabbing wins over Venz, Braunagel, and Lyon. Venz could have another shot at the Badger in the semis. The two engaged in a wild 11-10 bout earlier this year, while Venz won by fall when the pair clash last November.
TOM Predictions
1st - Aaron Brooks (Penn State) over Taylor Venz (Nebraska)
3rd - Zac Braunagel (Illinois) over Chris Weiler (Wisconsin)
5th - Layne Malczewski (Michigan State) over John Poznanski (Rutgers)
7th - Nelson Brands (Iowa) over Owen Webster (Minnesota)
197 lbs
1) #1 Eric Schultz (Nebraska)
2) #2 Myles Amine (Michigan)
3) #3 Jacob Warner (Iowa)
4) #6 Cam Caffey (Michigan State)
5) #10 Lucas Davison (Northwestern)
6) #18 Thomas Penola (Purdue)
7) #13 Michael Beard (Penn State)
8) #23 Matt Wroblewski (Illinois)
9) #24 Gavin Hoffman (Ohio State)
10) #25 Billy Janzer (Rutgers)
11) Garrett Joles (Minnesota)
12) Jaron Smith (Maryland)
13) Nick Willhelm (Indiana)
14) Andrew Salemme (Wisconsin)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (6)
Quarters to Watch:
#2 Myles Amine vs. #7 Michael Beard
#4 Cam Caffey vs. #5 Lucas Davison
We had the opportunity to see three-time All-American Myles Amine take on Michael Beard earlier in the season. It was only Amine’s second bout at 197 lbs after spending his previous three years competing at 174. Myles showed he would be able to handle the move in fine fashion. At the same time, Beard proved he could compete with the elite at the weight class. The fourth and fifth seeds, Cam Caffey and Lucas Davison, did not meet this season. Caffey was a conference runner-up in 2020 at 184 lbs and made the move up with favorable reviews. His two defeats came at the hands of the top-two wrestlers in the conference (and nation). He was also very competitive with both. Davison was only in action four times in 2021, winning three of those contests.
Beware of the Low Seed
#10 Billy Janzer
197 lbs is the weight with the lowest amount of automatic qualifiers in the conference with six. There will be a handful of quality wrestlers seeking at-large berths in the tournament’s aftermath. One that has the opportunity to outperform his seed and possibly work his way into the top-six is sophomore Billy Janzer. Billy was tenth in a deep 184 lbs weight class last year in the Big Ten. His most notable win over the year came against eventual Big Ten finalist Cam Caffey. Janzer is 2-2 this year with close losses to Hoffman and Penola. He should face Beard in the first round Saturday.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Eric Schultz vs. #4 Cam Caffey
#2 Myles Amine vs. #3 Jacob Warner
A pair of Big Ten runner’s-up from 2020 are on track to collide in the semis when Eric Schultz and Cam Caffey meet in the semis. Schultz is unbeaten and has held the top spot in the national rankings all year. In Schultz’s eight matches this season, he has notched wins over three 2020 NWCA All-Americans, one of which is Caffey. Schultz is also responsible for the only loss on the year for Jacob Warner. Jacob is trying to get over the hump and make his first Big Ten final. He has come in third in each of his previous two tries. Since Amine spent his entire career at 174 lbs, he and Warner have never done battle. Despite his weight gain, Amine has remained effective as ever offensively. Amine has combined to tally 27 points in his three bouts while facing opponents seeded in the top-nine.
TOM Predictions
1st - Myles Amine (Michigan) over Eric Schultz (Nebraska)
3rd - Cam Caffey (Michigan State) over Jacob Warner (Iowa)
5th - Michael Beard (Penn State) over Lucas Davison (Northwestern)
7th - Thomas Penola (Purdue) over Billy Janzer (Rutgers)
285 lbs
1) #1 Gable Steveson (Minnesota)
2) #2 Mason Parris (Michigan)
3) #3 Tony Cassioppi (Iowa)
4) #13 Luke Luffman (Illinois)
5) #14 Christian Lance (Nebraska)
6) #12 Trent Hillger (Wisconsin)
7) #6 Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)
8) #17 Tate Orndorff (Ohio State)
9) Christian Rebottaro (Michigan State)
10) Jack Heyob (Northwestern)
11) Christian Colucci (Rutgers)
12) Dorian Keys (Purdue)
13) Rudy Streck (Indiana)
14) Garrett Kappes (Maryland)
Automatic NCAA Berths Allocated: (7)
Quarters to Watch:
#2 Mason Parris vs. #7 Greg Kerkvliet
Is there another quarterfinal to watch...anywhere, at any weight? It doesn’t get much better than a Junior World Champion against a Cadet World Champion in the quarterfinals. There are some questions regarding how Greg Kerkvliet received the seventh seed. The “eyeball test” shows that he’s definitely better than that, but seeding typically only takes into account black and white facts. Kerkvliet only has two matches this year, both of which ended in first period falls against opponents from Maryland. While the Michigan staff surely has confidence in their guy, they probably don’t love the idea of getting Kerkvliet in the quarters. Parris is no slouch himself, having earned bonus points in all six of his 2021 bouts. His Big Ten finals loss to Gable Steveson was his only since the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
Beware of the Low Seed
#11 Christian Colucci
Truthfully, it’s pretty difficult to see anyone in the top-eight seeds not finishing there, barring injuries. But for purposes of this listing, we should mention Christian Colucci. The Scarlet Knight big man only has two appearances in the 2021 season, losing both; however, he is very capable. The sixth-year senior has never had a losing season during his time at Lehigh or Rutgers. Colucci also has a win over the ninth-seed Christian Rebottaro back in the 2018-19 season.
Projected Semifinal Matches
#1 Gable Steveson vs. #4 Luke Luffman
#2 Mason Parris vs. #3 Tony Cassioppi
What a breakout year for Luke Luffman! Luke competed for the Fighting Illini last season, as a true freshman, and amassed a 17-11 record. He was named an alternate for the NCAA Championships after going 2-3 at the Big Ten Championships. In the second week of the 2021 season, Luffman put the country on notice with wins over Trent Hillger and Tate Orndorff, both top-ten opponents, at the time. The only two losses on Luffman’s record this season came from Tony Cassioppi and his potential semifinals opponent, Gable Steveson. Steveson has looked markedly better this year, which is a scary proposition considering he was 25-0 with bonus points in over 70% of his bouts in 2019-20. Gable has faced three of the top-five seeds at this tournament and pinned or teched each one. The other half of the bracket features the second and third-ranked big men in the nation, Mason Parris and Tony Cassioppi. The two met last year and Parris prevailed via fall. That could be in play again since Parris has captured bonus points in all six matches this year. Of course, if Parris falls in the quarters to Kerkvliet, that would be another interesting bout we’ve yet to see.
TOM Predictions
1st - Gable Steveson (Minnesota) over Mason Parris (Michigan)
3rd - Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State) over Tony Cassioppi (Iowa)
5th - Trent Hillger (Wisconsin) over Luke Luffman (Illinois)
7th - Christian Lance (Nebraska) over Tate Orndorff (Ohio State)
Final Team Projections
1) Iowa
2) Penn State
3) Michigan
4) Nebraska
5) Minnesota
6) Ohio State
7) Illinois
8) Purdue
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