photo courtesy of Cam Kramer
Conference season is upon us. This week we have five DI conferences in action and each day, we’ll bring a new preview. We’ll start out west with the Pac-12.
The conference is in flux as recent power Stanford’s athletic department announced that they would be dropping the sport in July. Since then, there have been plenty of efforts to keep the program, though this isn’t the proper place to detail everything surrounding the Stanford team. Even with uncertainty in the air, the Cardinal has been able to send out a formidable squad, led by undefeated, third-ranked Shane Griffith. Now that that’s out of the way, we have a handful of teams in the Pac-12 with upward trajectories. #5 Arizona State finished the year unbeaten in dual competition and will undoubtedly be in the hunt for a team trophy at nationals in St. Louis. Half of the Sun Devils’ ten starters are currently ranked in the top-eight at their respective weight classes and all five are unbeaten. Despite a first-year coaching staff, Oregon State has a veteran-laden squad that boasts three past national qualifiers. With their recruiting, the Beavers should be in contention for Pac-12 titles, sooner rather than later. Speaking of recruiting, Cal Poly has been able to retain some of the best in-state talent and the results have begun to show on the mat. Little Rock has been aggressive on the recruiting trail too, and has a lot of excitement around the second-year program. Finally, we have a CSU Bakersfield team that we don’t know much about. The Roadrunners have participated in only two duals this year under first-year head coach Luke Smith.
The condensed season has forced the NCAA to modify its NCAA qualifier allocations for the 2021 season. That means instead of wrestlers earning spots for their conference based on this year’s performance, the NCAA awarded bids based on the last five years’ average at each weight. As we go through our preview, you’ll notice that those bids don’t always correlate with the results on the mat in 2021. A handful of Pac-12 weights have more high-caliber wrestlers than bids available. For those wrestler’s sake, I’m sure their coaches and fans are keeping their fingers crossed and hoping there are minimal upsets at other qualifying events.
Below, we’ve gone through each weight class and previewed its competitors and made predictions for the championship finals, along with national qualifiers, and the team race.
When: Sunday, February 28th
Where: Corvallis, Oregon
How to Watch: First Two Round: Oregon State Live Stream ;Championship: Pac-12 Network and Pac-12.com
125 lbs
Arizona State - #4 Brandon Courtney
Cal Poly - Antonio Lorenzo
CSU Bakersfield - Eddie Flores
Little Rock - Khyler Brewer
Oregon State - #29 Brandon Kaylor
Stanford - #28 Jackson DiSario
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
Right off the bat, we get to see how relying on historical data may present a problem at the first Pac-12 weight class. Two national qualifiers (Brandon Courtney and Jackson DiSario) return, while Brandon Kaylor has been ranked the majority of the 2021 season. Courtney will attempt to capture back-to-back conference crowns and comes in hot at 9-0. He’s been able to post bonus points in seven of those wins. This will be the first occasion that Courtney sees either DiSario or Kaylor this season; however, he did defeat them a combined three times in 2019-20. DiSario should get the second seed based on his head-to-head win over Kaylor. Last year the two split matches, with the Cardinal prevailing at Pac-12’s. The next three seeds should fall into place as Antonio Lorenzo has defeated Khyler Brewer, who has teched winless Eddie Flores (though he’s only appeared in two matches). With the volatility of the 125 lb weight class nationally, it will be critical for the semifinal winner on the bottom half of the bracket to lock up the automatic bid.
TOM’s Finals Prediction: Courtney over DiSario
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Brandon Courtney (Arizona State) and Jackson DiSario (Stanford)
133 lbs
Arizona State - #7 Michael McGee
Cal Poly - Benny Martinez
CSU Bakersfield - #31 Chance Rich
Little Rock - #33 Paul Bianchi
Oregon State - #21 Devan Turner
Stanford - #28 Jason Miranda
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (1)
Another weight class that will feel the squeeze from the allocations via historical data is 133 lbs. Three former national qualifiers are a part of this weight and two others are in the top-33 nationally. #21 Devan Turner is the defending champion at this weight and even earned second-team NWCA All-American honors last season. He experienced a rough opening day for the 2021 season and lost all three of his bouts. Turner was able to right the ship and won four of his last five. He isn’t expected to receive the top seed because of the presence of #7 Michael McGee. The Old Dominion transfer has thrived at ASU, racking up bonus points in four of his six matches. Four of those wins came against opponents currently in the top-33. Paul Bianchi is one of the wrestlers with the best shot to become the first national qualifiers for Little Rock. He made it to the Big Dance in 2018 while at North Dakota State. He’ll likely face Chance Rich in the opening round. Rich defeated Bianchi 7-5 in one of his two regular-season appearances. During the other, he was pinned by true freshman Jason Miranda. Jason won his first four collegiate bouts before facing a pair of ranked opponents to conclude the regular season. Finally, we’ll have Benny Martinez, who went 1-6 and surrendered bonus points to McGee, Miranda, and Bianchi.
TOM Finals Prediction: McGee over Turner
Projected Automatic Qualifier: Michael McGee (Arizona State)
141 lbs
Arizona State - #28 Peter Lipari
Cal Poly - #29 Lawrence Saenz
CSU Bakersfield - Angelo Martinoni
Little Rock - Conner Ward
Oregon State - #14 Grant Willits
Stanford - Luciano Arroyo
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
A pretty solid, well-balanced weight class appears to be in the works at 141 lbs. 2019 Pac-12 champion Grant Willits will attempt to win his second title in three tries. Willits was flawless against conference competition and his closest bout against a Pac-12 foe was his 12-5 win over Lawrence Saenz. That accounted for one of his two wins in 2021 against ranked competition. Despite a 3-4 record, expect Peter Lipari to receive the second season after a narrow victory over Saenz. Lipari participated in the 2019 National Tournament while competing for Rider. Saenz is also a transfer, from Fresno State, who put bonus points up against all opponents not named Willits or Lipari. A wild card at this weight could be Angelo Martinoni. He is only 2-0 on the year, but pinned Lipari last season and earned a win in tiebreakers over All-American Tariq Wilson. The Wilson win came while he took sixth at the Southern Scuffle. Martinoni’s two wins this season came at the expense of Luciano Arroyo and Conner Ward. The two are slated to receive the fifth and sixth seed, respectively. The big elephant in the room at 141 lbs, is the status of Real Woods. Some whispers indicate he may suit up for the Cardinal. If so, he’ll be a national title contender. Woods’ 0-0 record means he’d have to win the conference for him to be eligible for nationals.
TOM Finals Prediction: Willits over Saenz
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Grant Willits (Oregon State), Lawrence Saenz (Cal Poly)
149 lbs
Arizona State - #29 Cory Crooks
Cal Poly - #18 Legend Lamer
CSU Bakersfield - Kalani Tonge
Little Rock - Kyle Prewitt
Oregon State - Lane Stigall
Stanford - #21 Jaden Abas
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
Coming into the year, most observers may have guessed that the Pac-12 would have a freshman in the top-20 atop the 149 lb weight class. Many of them would have thought it would be Jaden Abas rather than Legend Lamer. Lamer finished the year 9-0 and grabbed wins over the likely two and three seeds at this weight, Abas and Cory Crooks. Each was a one-point win. Abas had a solid freshman season with wins in six of his eight bouts. His biggest win of the year was a 5-2 decision over two-time national qualifier Mitch Moore. Crooks moved up a weight for his fifth-year with the ASU program. He lost a one-point match to Moore but came up big for the Sun Devils during wins over Northern Iowa and Wyoming. A win over Kyle Prewitt likely locks up the fourth seed for Missouri-transfer Lane Stigall. Lane generally keeps it close with tough competition, so don’t be shocked by an upset or two from him. Kalani Tonge only saw action in two matches, one of which was a loss by fall to Prewitt, so he’ll have to take the sixth seed.
TOM Finals Prediction: Lamer over Abas
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Legend Lamer (Cal Poly), Jaden Abas (Stanford)
157 lbs
Arizona State - #13 Jacori Teemer
Cal Poly - Brawley Lamer
CSU Bakersfield - Brock Rogers
Little Rock - Joey Bianchi
Oregon State - #17 Hunter Willits
Stanford - #18 Requir van der Merwe
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
This weight class is another example of the conference getting squeezed by the historical data. Three of the top-20 wrestlers in the nation are from the Pac-12, yet only two will automatically go to St. Louis. Two of the three happen to be former conference champions, too. Jacori Teemer is the returning champion at this weight and has not lost to a Pac-12 foe in either of his two seasons competing for the Sun Devils. Back from a 2020 redshirt is Hunter Willits, who has made the conference finals as a freshman and sophomore for Oregon State. The only blemishes on Willits’ 2021 ledger comes in the form of a pair of one-point losses to top-12 opponents. He should get the nod as the second seed after his 6-2 win over Requir van der Merwe to conclude the regular season. Van der Merwe had a pair of big victories on the final day of January when he took out ranked opponents, Justin Thomas (Oklahoma) and Cade DeVos (South Dakota State). His loss to Willits was his only of the regular season in six outings. The final three entrants did not meet during the season and have a combined five wins. A conference win by major decision could be enough for Brawley Lamer to have the edge over Brock Rogers and Joey Bianchi.
TOM Finals Prediction: Teemer over Willits
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Jacori Teemer (Arizona State), Hunter Willits (Oregon State)
165 lbs
Arizona State - #5 Anthony Valencia
Cal Poly - Adam Kemp
CSU Bakersfield - Hunter LaRue
Little Rock - Alex Hernandez
Oregon State - Matt Olguin
Stanford - #3 Shane Griffith
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
The unquestioned match of the evening could come in the Pac-12 finals at 165 lbs as #3 Shane Griffith and #5 Anthony Valencia are on a collision course. Griffith has yet to taste defeat in official collegiate competition, adding five wins to his 2020 total of 28. A 9-2 win over Matt Olguin is the only match this season where Shane failed to pick up bonus points. With Real Woods’ status murky, at-best, Griffith has the best shot at winning a national title in what could be Stanford’s final season of competition. Before getting to nationals, Griffith will have to contend with Anthony Valencia. Anthony has been as consistent as ever this season and comes in unbeaten at 8-0. Valencia got his first All-American honor last year, but is still seeking to win a spot on the podium for the first time. Both Griffith and Valencia are strong favorites over anyone else in the weight, so it may not make a difference who is given the top seed. At 1-1, Olguin is the only other wrestler without a losing record in the bracket. He posted a solid 10-2 major decision over a capable opponent, Kekana Fouret (Utah Valley), for his lone win over the year. The reset of the seeds could fall in line as Adam Kemp has a head-to-head win over Alex Hernandez. Hunter LaRue is expected to be the guy for Bakersfield and he is 0-2 on the year.
TOM Finals Prediction: Griffith over Valencia
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Shane Griffith (Stanford), Anthony Valencia (Arizona State)
174 lbs
Arizona State - #18 Trey Munoz
Cal Poly - #16 Bernie Truax
CSU Bakersfield - Albert Urias
Little Rock - Triston Wills
Oregon State - Colton Beisley
Stanford - Tyler Eischens
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
A UWW Junior National title in November proved to be a sign of things to come for Bernie Truax, who has carried that momentum into the collegiate season and has won seven of eight matches. His first appearance of the year, against #4 Demetrius Romero (Utah Valley), accounts for his only setback in 2021. As a freshman, in 2019-20, Truax qualified for the national tournament via an at-large berth and was given the 29th seed. After Romero, Truax’s most significant test came from freshman Trey Munoz who took him to sudden victory. That loss to the Mustang was Munoz’s only defeat of the year. He opened the year by downing returning second-team NWCA All-American Anthony Mantanona (Oklahoma), 8-3. Another past national qualifier is in the ranks where, with Stanford’s Tyler Eischens. Tyler moves up two weight classes from his 2020 weight. Eischens tallied a 6-3 record moving up-and-down between 165 and 174 lbs. A 1-1 record and a win over Triston Wills could be enough to garner the fourth seed for Albert Urias. Albert was over .500 during the 2019-20 campaign as a redshirt freshman. Wills started the year with three-straight wins, including one over Colton Beisley, but has been unable to replicate that form since, going 5-8. Beisley has two wins on the year, but neither has come against conference competitors.
TOM Finals Prediction: Truax over Munoz
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Bernie Truax (Cal Poly), Trey Munoz (Arizona State)
184 lbs
Arizona State - Cade Belshay
Cal Poly - Dylan Miracle
CSU Bakersfield - Dom Ducharme
Little Rock - Tanner Mendoza
Oregon State - #24 Ryan Reyes
Stanford - Jared Hill
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (1)
This will likely be the most wide-open of any weights in the conference. Three or four wrestlers are capable of winning it on their best day. The most consistent of the group has been Ryan Reyes. In his first year with the Beavers, Reyes has gone 5-3, with all three losses coming to ranked out-of-conference opponents. If it’s solely based on 2021 performance, he probably gets the top seed. Dom Ducharme is a 2019 national qualifier that has won both of his matches this year. He moved up to 197 lbs in 2019-20 and didn’t make the national tournament, but is back down to 184 for this season. Next in line is probably Cade Belshay, who shared starting duties throughout most of the year. Belshay was victorious in both of his conference matches, including a fall over Dylan Miracle. Dylan grabbed a win over Stanford, but it wasn’t their probable starter, Jared Hill. Hill bounced between 174 and 184 and has losses to Reyes and Ducharme on the year.
TOM Finals Prediction: Ducharme over Reyes
Projected Automatic Qualifier: Dom Ducharme (CSU Bakersfield)
197 lbs
Arizona State - #4 Kordell Norfleet
Cal Poly - Trevor Tinker
CSU Bakersfield - Josh Loomer
Little Rock - Dylan Johnson
Oregon State - JJ Dixon
Stanford - Nick Stemmet
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (3)
This is a weight class where the Pac-12 will actually benefit from this season’s qualifying system as opposed to some of the previous weights. Fourth-ranked Kordell Norfleet is the only wrestler in the conference listed in the top-33, so there are a few slots that may otherwise have not gone to the Pac-12. Norfleet is the clear favorite as he sports a 7-0 record with two falls and two techs. He also has a win over Stephen Buchanan (Wyoming), which came directly after Buchanan upset the previous national #1, Noah Adams (West Virginia). After Norfleet is Josh Loomer, a 2020 Pac-12 champ at 184 lbs. Loomer took the conference by shock last season and won the conference with a 10-14 record. He has not officially competed for the Roadrunners in 2021. JJ Dixon is another threat for one of the three automatic bids. He’s 6-3 with wins over two of the competitors in this bracket. Dixon comes in as a winner of his last four bouts. Nick Stemmet is another one that could book his trip to St. Louis. Stemmet is 4-1, with his only loss of the year coming to #6 Tanner Sloan (South Dakota State). The last two seeds should belong to Trevor Tinker and Dylan Johnson, with Tinker getting the #5 based on his head-to-head win by fall.
TOM Finals Prediction: Norfleet over Dixon
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Kordell Norfleet (Arizona State), JJ Dixon (Oregon State), Nick Stemmet (Stanford)
285 lbs
Arizona State - #5 Cohlton Schultz
Cal Poly - Sam Aguilar
CSU Bakersfield - Jacob Sieder
Little Rock - Gabriel Beyer
Oregon State - Brian Barnes
Stanford - #24 Nathan Traxler
Automatic NCAA Qualifying Spots Available (2)
Wins over two opponents, then ranked in the top-six nationally, catapulted Cohlton Schultz up the national rankings and into fifth-place. The undefeated freshman already has a ton of accolades on the Greco-Roman front (Final X berth, Junior World silver medal, Cadet World Championship), but some wondered if that would translate to folkstyle success. Not only has Schultz been able to dominate when the situation presents itself (two falls), he’s also been able to grind out wins over more seasoned competition (three in tiebreakers). Someone that fits that bill is fifth-year senior Nathan Traxler. Nathan is a three-time national qualifier at 197 lbs, including a 2019 season that saw him capture a conference crown and finish a match shy of All-American honors. Last year, he was named a second-team AA by the NWCA. A 4-1 record is probably good enough for Sam Aguilar to land the third seed. Aguilar was able to outlast Gabriel Beyer in tiebreakers during his most recent outing. Beyer has gone 6-7 wrestling Little Rock’s challenging schedule. He has wins over the two wrestlers expected to be behind him in the bracketing, Jacob Sieder and Brian Barnes. Sieder has notched bonus point wins in two matches against Stanford heavys (not Traxler) this year and he was 14-6 in 2019-20. Barnes is 1-6 during his first year officially competing for the Beavers; however, that sole win came outside the conference.
TOM Finals Prediction: Schultz over Traxler
Projected Automatic Qualifiers: Cohlton Schultz (Arizona State), Nathan Traxler (Stanford)
Projected Team Race
1) Arizona State
2) Stanford
3) Oregon State
4) Cal Poly
5) CSU Bakersfield
6) Little Rock
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